Sitting next to Lady Thatcher at the Queens 80th Birthday parade

That fellow on the horse is my brother-in-law, LtCol Toby Gray, commander of the Guards. Fine chap that he is, he gave me front-seat tickets to the Queens 80th - apparently the Foreign Secretary's (he couldn't go). Seats next to Lady Thatcher was the offer. Sadly, the greatest Prime Minister since Churchill was a few rows back - though I said hello as she walked by. She may be old and frail, but she looked pretty lucid to me despite some of the nonsense in the press.

Melanies Godparents

A sunny day earlier this year when we had a chance to get together with Richard and Bridget. These chances don't get come around often enough.

New Zealand 2006 approaches

With our regular bi-annual Christmas and New Year trip to Australia and New Zealand approaching, here is Melanie at her Aunt Nikki's last Christmas.

You know its Christmas because of the christmas lights in the background!

And so it goes on.... immigration and Alice in Wonderland....

And so it goes on.

1. The government has recently admitted that the number of asylum seekers of unknown whereabouts is now 400,000+ as opposed to the 200,000 stated previously which itself was an increase of suggestions that it was less than 100,000. So we can probably say that its likely to be north of 1m when we are finished estimations.

2. Figures just snuck out of the Treasury identify that last year 660,000 (yes 2/3 million) of new NI numbers were given to foreign nationals. This is 2.3% of the working population of this country in one year. That equals THE ENTIRE GROWTH IN GDP.

3. While unemployment count is now steadily increasing, the Treasury (currently) denies that this is anything to do with immigration (although at last the question is actually being asked). Why, one asks, when the economy is growing so well is unemployment rising at all? Perhaps actually the underlying economic performance is actually flat but all we are seeing is the effect of a surge in foreign workers. Gordon Browns economy is actually now like stagnant Germany + immigration.

4. Well, can you believe it. In a leaked document, Junior Labour minister identifies that immigration is depressing low-income wages and that this may lead to "social problems". Who would have thought that! Can the laws of supply and demand really be true! When did the low-income voters vote for a clearly expressed policy of 2/3m new workers per annum. Err - they didn’t. And now Gordon is stuck. He can't turn the immigration tap off because his economic growth would collapse so that even the economically illiterate British Media would spot that we have a problem. He will struggle to contain public spending because 2.3% increase in (largely low income) workers drives huge leveraged increases in social spending (housing, education, policing etc).

And so this great social experiment continues - with some similarity to the now bankrupt experiment of throwing huge funds at the public NHS and Education systems.

RJ

Immigration facts

The great and the good in Britain prefer we dont have facts on this subject. However every so often they leak out. Here are some....

Britain takes more than its share of asylum seekers. We have 15% of the EUs population yet we take 29% of asylum seekers.

The UN High Commissioner for Refugees, Ruud Lubbers recognised this when he said on the Today programme 0n 30 Dec 2002 that the UK was getting more than its proportional share of immigrants. He added, "lets share the burden so we have less in the UK and more spread
across the EU".

A key issue is not population but population density. Three-quarters of migrants to Britain go to London and the South East, already one of the most crowded areas of Europe . Indeed, England as a whole is one of the most densely populated areas of Europe (383 people per square
kilometre). This is nearly twice the level of Germany (227), four times the level of France (105) and twelve times the level of the US (29.5). Ethnic minorities now make up 29% of the population of the London region. That percentage is increasing rapidly.

Taking asylum seekers per square kilometre England was the highest in Europe. In those few countries which have a higher asylum application rate than Britain ; such as Belgium , Denmark and The Netherlands, voters have turned to extreme political parties to express their dis-pleasure at the level of immigration.

Is Immigration a good or bad thing? That is a worthy subject of debate. What should not be hidden is the fact that the current immigration numbers are historically unprecedented in their size, duration and the fact that they are not linked to a single specific global event (like the Jewish immigration of the 30's.

Some in the Labour Party get that the great multi-cultural experiment has not worked out the way the cheerleaders of immigration thought it might.... http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/5119892.stm

The Great NHS Experiment wobbles to an end

I remember fondly many decades ago the then Liberal politician Shirley Williams stated with certainty on Question Time that "another 2 billion pounds would solve the under-funding problems of the NHS". How time flies.

Here we are, at the fag end of the New Labour great experiment with public services. This experiment was to throw large amount of public funds at monolithic public institutions on the basis that money would cure all ills.

Well, after around 6 years of tax-funded plenty, we approach record NHS deficits and a looming strike among NHS staff protesting against feeble government attempts at reform and cost effectiveness. We are spending the same or more on health than our European partners (although a much greater proportion of our money is Government provided). Why is it then that the outcome is so much worse? Maybe it wasn't the money after all?

For the first time in living memory, a brave right-of-centre government could actually challenge the conventional wisdom that the NHS itself is not part of the solution but the main problem in delivering a 21st century healthcare system to the British people. Sadly that does not appear to be an opportunity that is being taken.

The coming era of low health spending increases will be a fascinating but painful process to observe. Succesful politicians will be those who have something new to say......